Re: Newspaper are doomed?

From: Ed Grosso <edgrosso_at_mediaone.net>
Date: Thu 14 Sep 2000 17:10:56 -0500

MARGARITA <b_o_n_a_at_hotmail.com> WROTE:
> Hi, I've beed doing a research on Internet vs.
> newspaper advertising recently and I got a feeling that
> the world is not big enough for both of them. To quote
> Ted Turner from Time Warner: "I wouldn't want to be in
> the newspaper business. I think the Internet is going
> to eat them first" (Fortune, Jan 10,2000)

You can check with the ANA for more detailed
information but, newspaper circulation had been
declining for many years...long before the Internet.
Cities that once had as many as five newspapers with,
in many cases, morning and evening editions now have
one. Not many have two.

Television had a huge impact on all news media. (Note
the recent demise of LIFE) but more of an impact was
generated by suburbanization of America and the
evolution of local and regional newspapers...some
daily, most weekly. However, I once did a study for a
major market newspaper to analyze where its weekday
circulation was eroding to. I found that it was losing
circulation faster than the local newspaper were
growing so we concluded that many people had stopped
reading newspapers all together. The erosion of all
newspaper readership (Metro and suburban) will become
more pervasive because of the Internet but remember
that commercial radio has been working since 1927 and
television came on the scene in about 1950. Newspapers
are still around. Also, forgetting newspapers for a
second, have you looked at a magazine rack lately and
seen all of the special interest magazine? People are
still reading from paper and ink and publishers are
making money. The Internet is great social force but a
long way from putting printers out of business.

It will be many, many years before newspapers attract
enough visitors to their Web sites to warrant
publishers dropping the hard copy editions. At this
stage, newspapers also generate a lot of revenue as
distribution vehicles for free standing stuffers (FSIs)
which will be difficult to match on the Web. Look at
the percentage of people who actually use the Internet,
beyond e-mail and you will find a relatively small
group. In my opinion, it may take 25 years for the
WWW's mass exposure to expand to a mass that will
match the household penetration and pervasiveness of
daily newspapers.

Ted Turner is correct. But, in my opinion, newspapers
will be around (and making money) long after he has the
option of deciding who should be in what business.

This is a big and interesting subject but perhaps this
narrow insight will be helpful. I suggest that you do
some research on media growth over the past 50 years
and try an draw some parallels to the consumer Internet
business.

Regards,

Ed Grosso
Communications Consultant
508 477 8559





Received on Thu Sep 14 2000 - 17:10:56 CDT