Re: Newspapers are doomed?

From: David Yancey <dyancey_at_ibizadmin.com>
Date: Thu 21 Sep 2000 14:32:38 -0500

Of all the threads I've seen and participated in over
the years at Online Ads, the current one regarding the
future (or non-future) of the newspaper business is one
of the most engaging.

We are about to launch a major business and
professional news site (www.ibizNewswire.com - coming
in October) as part of our continuing rollout of the
Internet Business Forum family of online business info
services and tools, so I obviously would have a special
interest, but I think most O-A regulars will agree that
this topic is one of the most important ones to all of
us engaged in web-based publishing.

So, many thanks to all who have posted so far - your
comments and experience are truly illuminating.

But the discussion has focused mostly on issues of use
and technology, not economics. The consensus seems to
be that printed media will continue to appeal to a
great majority of news readers. Those arguments "for"
the continuing viability of the newspaper biz are
sound, IMO, because many folks will simply prefer this
format for many years to come. But the format questions
and possibilities are *not* the "lead story" here, if
you'll forgive me. The fact that newspapers will
survive in some printed form is not the question, but
whether they'll do so as viable, growing businesses.
And, as they face the challenge of online news sources,
how they can adapt using their local and content
advantages.

The technology battle between electronic and printed
delivery masks the truly main points, such as those
made by posters Carmen Paulino (O-A 19th Sep), Antony
Young (O-A 19th Sep), Antonio Romero (O-A 18th Sep),
and Shawn Merwin (O-A 15th Sep). These posts variously
explain the threat to the newspapers' ad base, which I
contend is the really important element in assessing
their competitive future.

Classifieds were mentioned mainly, but the threat is
actually far greater, since the Internet basically
allows the delivery of "now on sale" info *much* more
effectively *and* more inexpensively than newspapers
can. The migration of classifieds to the web is a
great example, but think in addition how many
page-equivalents in your daily paper are filled with
"sale" and similar retailer information. Just think of
the grocery ads pages, for starters. You want to
distribute coupons? What better method than the web,
tying in your coupons to the local Piggly Wiggly POS
system?

Then look at all the ads for business services,
financial services, events postings, new places of
business announcements, and all the other items where
an online delivery solution would be more effective.
*IF* enough people in any given locality see it.
"Enough" and "local" are the operative words, because
the vital element in these ads along with most
classifieds is their immediate connection with a
physical community. The web is just not there yet, in
terms of successfully "localizing" its advertising
delivery options, but it's a safe bet it will be in a
few short years.

But the problem remains of getting enough readers to
reach critical mass. To expect busy consumers or
business persons to come browsing through a web site to
find stuff they very likely don't actually need all
that much is wishful thinking.

The answer, to risk making the O-A fur fly all over
again on our most repeated thread, will be commercial
email, of course. Smart messaging systems that can
inform opted-in consumers of stuff they need to know
about, not by posting it in some hard to find corner of
a massive community-centered website, but by delivering
it to them one-on-one, item-by-item, in a whole variety
of formats depending on how and when each individual
consumer wants to see it.

In short, the Internet itself is not a threat to the
newspaper business, so much as is the underlying
technology - the ability to understand and manage
individual preferences, coupled with the near zero cost
of content, coupled with the near zero cost of
email-based delivery, coupled with the fantastic
increase in ad-dollar performance thereby made
possible.

But it gets better - with the above message delivery
system, one can reach practically *all* those who are
probably interested in the proposition. But with a
printed medium, I have to hope that the right eyeballs
are all seeing my message. Unlikely, clearly, since
there is no way to ensure that my best prospects even
turn to my page in any given issue of the Daily Blat.

Here's the net: if you have practically anything to
sell in Omaha, from a used car to a great deal on
frozen fish sticks to a high-interest savings account
to an empty table at your new pizzaria, and can, for,
say, X dollars, reach, by 2005, outside, probably 75%
of those who have previously expressed an interest in
your message via the web, why would you then pay
another 3-5X dollars to *try* to reach some proportion
of the remaining 25%? It just won't make economic
sense, to most businesses and classifieds advertisers,
and that spells, no, not the end of newspapers as a
handy way to read the news on the bus, but yes, sorry,
the death of *traditional* newspapers *as the dominant
local medium for connecting sellers with buyers.*

David Yancey - - Chairman
Internet Business Forum, Inc.
http://www.ibizHome.com/1801.htm
"Your strategic partner on the Internet"





Received on Thu Sep 21 2000 - 14:32:38 CDT