Re: Newspapers are doomed?

From: Mark Hornung <mark.hornung_at_bravant.com>
Date: Mon 25 Sep 2000 17:48:15 -0500

I, too, have been watching this thread with interest.
This topic comes up quite frequently in my Advertising
Strategy classes at San Jose State University
("Silicon Valley's Metropolitan Campus"). Here is what
I tell my students.

In the history of media, no new medium has ever "killed
off" an existing one. As each as come on the scene,
analysts would predict that it was going to destroy
its predecessors. In the case of TV, it did come close
to killing off radio (my father managed a small
Midwestern AM station in the late fifties and I
remember the hard times). But-voila!-radio evolved from
being an all-purpose medium to one that uses formatting
and targeting very astutely. Today, radio licenses are
worth millions.

Cable was going to be the death of the broadcast
networks. And while they have lost significant market
share, they still have a plurality of the market. The
networks, too, are evolving, buying up cable outlets
(e.g., MSNC, CNBC, ESPN, ESPN2, etc., etc.) and
creating programming similar to that found on cable
(for good or ill).

The newspapers are well aware of the threat from the
Net to their core advertising business, i.e.,
classified help-wanted ads and items for sale. "Editor
& Publisher" did a study three years ago that predicted
the Net would take away as much as 50% of the
newspapers' classified linage by 2001, which would
reduce their ROI from 15 cents on the dollar to 3. The
strong economy has slowed that process somewhat
(newspaper linage is still growing), but the trend is
clear. That is why-as some posters have already
pointed out-the newspaper publishers have begun to move
their content and their franchise to the Web in order
to remain competitive.

But what about the paper and ink newspaper? Will it go
away completely in favor of Microsoft Reader and
similar technologies? Unlikely. But it will change. My
prediction is that newspaper will more and more
resemble "USA Today". Short articles with no jumps.
Lots of colorful graphics. And pointers in articles
and at their conclusion to places on the paper's Web
site where the reader can find out more. The newspaper
will become the "TV Guide" of your life-you will use
it to scan the day's activities in politics, business,
sports, entertainment, whatever, and then decide what
to pursue online.

But there are technologies to do the same, some will
protest. True, but what PDAs and similar devices
cannot mimic is the serendipitous meandering that
characterizes reading a printed newspaper. As you turn
pages, a headline or a photo catches your eye. It may
be something you weren't even looking for, but
something about it makes you want to find out more.
This is very different from the cacophonous appearance
of most news sites and portals-there, the sheer number
of different items competing for your attention become
distracting. You have to filter out the uninteresting
or annoying in order to find what you want.

Finally, printed newspapers will survive because they
don't need batteries or a power cord. Laugh if you
will, but the reliability of print is a strong
argument for its continuance. I never had a newspaper
go dark on me in the middle of an article. Sadly, my
PDA has.

Regards,

Mark Hornung
Sr. Partner
JWT Specialized Communications
T 1+ 650 728 7559
F 1+ 650 728 7580
E mark.hornung_at_jwtworks.com
W www.jwtworks.com





Received on Mon Sep 25 2000 - 17:48:15 CDT