Re: Newspapers are doomed?

From: Virginia Ikeda <nia_at_sitesys.com>
Date: Thu 28 Sep 2000 16:13:09 -0500

Great topic!

However, we can't make an accurate assessment because
we don't have all the pertinent facts.

For instance, one of the things that will be a major
impact on this argument will occur when we finally
adopt a similar usage plan that Europeans and others
have via their cell phones. (And their will be other
kinds of digital ink solutions coming down the pike
soon.) That is, they can query their phone/pda for the
nearest restaurant or other shop that they seek as
they travel, buy snacks via the cell phone, etc. For
retail inquiries, their location is immediately
recognized via a GPS signal (we would probably use
triangulation), and "voila!", they get the local
listings.

I forsee that advertising and local "classifieds" will
migrate to this format. The massive databases, like
the Auto Traders, eBays, etc., will still have to be
accessed via a regular computer format (wireless, or
not), but to KEEP UP with particular auctions or
sales, we'll probably just sign up for a "watch list",
etc. for notifications and access. So, in the short
term, the content will have to be "short". But,
certainly, within 3 years, the size of content will
become a non-relevant variable.

We should see, within the next 3 years, the beginning
of this major incursion. Since most newspapers depend
on classifieds for the bulk of their operating
expense, with other advertising, those who are
developing this online service for clients will
continue in the new medium. Others will die away into
oblivion. Because, digital applications are very
efficient as well as capable of tremendous scaling AND
custom tailoring (remember 1:1?). So, regionalism and
localisms can all be applied whether being "published"
from Boston or India. Accumulating and inputting the
data are the only significant costs. Well, okay,
traffic management is also a cost, but not so heavy as
paper, printing equipment, labor, etc.

Print will stay with us for some 10-15 years as a
"mainstream" and viable vehicle, but after that, some
sort of digital ink will displace newsprint and paper.
Paper products will never go away - but they'll become
niche and specialty items. I think that we all know
this deep down. But, reading will be with us for
several more decades.

Just some thoughts,
- Virginia Ikeda





Received on Thu Sep 28 2000 - 16:13:09 CDT