Re: Crystal ball

From: Rick Bruner <rick_at_imtstrategies.com>
Date: Wed 31 Jan 2001 10:46:19 -0500

DAVE CLARK <mediadc_at_email.msn.com> WROTE:
> "according to the latest IDC report. Small
> business e-commerce revenue is expected to
> grow dramatically, from $12 billion in 1999
> to $110 billion in 2003. This translates to
> an annual increase of roughly 75 percent."

IDC, IMHO, is chronically among the most hypish
at sizing markets. I always look at their numbers
w/ skepticism.

> We worry about whether banners are dead or whether we
> should be using rich media. Good marketing (not just
> advertising, but marketing) is what we should worry
> about. Some companies will fail. Hopefully, among the
> strong we'll see some whose products and services
> deserve to do well.

I absolutely agree. In the first place, you're right,
the pendulum has swung very far the other way, and
Wall St. and the media are throwing the baby out with
the bath water to a large extent by virtually
pronouncing all of e-commerce and online media a
failed experiment. Obviously, customer behavior makes
clear that use of the Internet is in no way going away.
While many dot-coms tried to grow too big too fast and
often in too crowded niches, there will be several
pure-play businesses that survive for the long term,
when the dust settles. On the other hand, I do agree
with the now-common wisdom that ultimately it is the
click-and-mortars with the most leverage to really
take advantage on the Net.

And I also agree w/ your comment there is a frequent
over-emphasis on "online advertising" instead of
"interactive marketing" in this forum (by virtue of
its very name, obviously) and many in the e-marketing
industry. My firm is just finishing a report, that I'd
like to share with this forum, entitled "The Evolution
of Interactive Marketing," in which we argue that
although the IAB reported in Q3 '00 the first-ever dip
in online ad spending, that investment in interactive
marketing is going to continue to increase
dramatically as a share of all corporate marketing
investments in the next few years. It's inevitable.

The dot-coms, which accounted for a disproportionate
share of online advertising $$ in the last few years
(as much as 70% in 2000, according to the IAB), the
traditional G2000 and mid-cap companies in the US have
still barely begun to shift significant share of
marketing expenditures online beyond experimental
programs. But they will. They have to. They're already
into 2nd Gen web sites and realizing there's enough
marketing benefit and customer interaction taking
place online that it's inevitable they'll shift more
marketing investments online. Expect to see, however,
an improved allocation of those resources into several
online programs besides banners (which today takes the
lion's share of spending), such as search engine
optimization, permission email, partner networks,
registration brokering (a la Mighty Seven), customer
intelligence and other programs. I look forward to
sharing that study w/ this forum shortly.

Rick E. Bruner, VP of i-marketing research
203 705-6536 or 212 280-1790 - rick_at_imtstrategies.com
Author "Net Results.2: Best Practices for Web Marketing"
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ISBN=0735710244/executivesummaryA/

IMT Strategies helps sales and marketing executives build
e-business strategies. We offer publications, training and a
unique advisory service. http://www.imtstrategies.com





Received on Wed Jan 31 2001 - 09:46:19 CST