MODERATOR NOTE: 2004

From: Cliff Kurtzman <moderator_at_o-a.com>
Date: Mon 05 Jan 2004 15:18:00 -0600

Hope you are all enjoying a great start to 2004.

Looking back, 2003 ended up being a really fine year for
us at ADASTRO/Online Ads and the industry in general. Finally
a good bit of growth and stability after the roller coaster
of 2000, and after the economic downturn of 2001 and 2002.

So far my sense is that the economic outlook for 2004 is even
better than 2003.

Taking out my crystal ball and looking ahead, I see a number
of key issues and hot topics that will likely predominate the
online advertising landscape during the coming year. Here are
a few topics that are top of mind:

How will Google evolve and will it go public?

Will we see paid search growth peak and its bubble burst?

Look for aggressive legislation and litigation targeted against
spammers, some of it doing more harm than good.

The combination of stronger anti-spam legislation, the do-not-call
lists, and the fact that people don't look at junk snail mail,
is causing marketing resources to be channelled into other
outlets, with both positive and negative effects... already there
are more people physically coming to the door at my house to try
to sell me things face-to-face, for example.

The privacy wars are coming...

Look for increased sophistication in how organizations use online
marketing for brand enhancement. This will frequently include
segmentation of budgets into buys targeted towards branding
objectives and buys targeted towards direct response objectives.

Expect continued growth in M & A activity and consolidation of
players in the industry, as organizations look to eliminate
competition, trade cash in their war chest for profitable revenue
streams, and position themselves for a new wave of IPOs.

Sixdegrees was one of my favorite companies and online business
models back in the late 1990s, but it proved to be ahead of its
time. The company didn't survive the bursting of the bubble. But
now the business model has returned with the establishment of
dozens of new online social networks. The opportunities that
these networks will provide to online marketers are potentially
significant. 2003 witnessed the tremendous growth of Friendster,
followed by the mass defection of people from Friendster as the
site's operators proved, even after obtaining significant funding,
to be thoroughly unresponsive to the needs of its user base. Among
the dozen or so Friendster clones that sprung up, Myspace has
continued to grab the Friendster defectors by distinguishing
itself though an operational plan that includes continual
innovation and improvement and by encouraging dialog with its
users, which isn't easy when you have 600,000+ users. Fascinating
case studies in both how to blow a seemingly overwhelming
competitive advantage (Friendster) and in how to do things right
(Myspace). Look for continued growth and innovation in this sector.

Look for an increased demand for tools and techniques that will help
measure the performance of online marketing activites, and increased
insistance on measurement by those expending marketing budgets.

These are a few of the topics I think are going to be important
in the coming year. What else do you think is going to be important
for online marketing in 2004 that I've missed?

--Cliff Kurtzman
Moderator CEO
Online Advertising Discussion List ADASTRO Incorporated
http://www.o-a.com http://www.adastro.com

Some additional reading:

Internet Advertising Report
Slow, Steady Ad Growth Predicted For 2004
http://www.internetnews.com/IAR/article.php/3293681

Internet Advertising Report
Spam Suit Highlights Need to Police Affiliates
http://www.internetnews.com/IAR/article.php/3292121

ClickZ
Google's House of Cards
http://www.clickz.com/mkt/capital/article.php/3294611

E-Commerce Times
War on Spam Reaches Global Proportions
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/perl/story/32487.html



Received on Mon Jan 05 2004 - 15:18:00 CST