Re: False Clicks/Click Fraud

From: Brad Jensen <brad.jensen_at_laservault.com>
Date: Fri 18 Aug 2006 09:52:15 -0500

Keith Hickman wrote:

> Brad Jensen Wrote:
>
> >"I do hope you are kidding.
> >Every business is based on trust, and the last thing that would help
> >Google's bottom line is click fraud. They aren't in business for one
> >week, or one quarter."
>
> Brad, I think you must be kidding. Ever here of Enron? It
> collapsed
> due to corporate fraud.

Well, actually it collapsed because of a journalistic pile-on.
When everyone stops doing business with you because they don't
want to be tainted in the latest media witch-hunt, it's hard
to make payroll.

While Enron may have been creative in trying to maximize
quarterly results, what they were doing accounting wise was
not illegal, and they were financially sound until all their
customers were scared away, even if they weren't as profitable
as they were pretending to be.

(I understand that this is unthinkably rational, but if all we
are going to do is follow the leader with mob rule by
journalists, what good is it having an education - or a
brain?)

> This was Americas 7th largest company.
> Since initiating the Enron investigation on December 4, 2001,
> the FBI has opened more than 50 major corporate fraud
> investigations, including WorldCom, K-mart, America Online,
> Qwest Communications, Tyco International, Homestores.com,
> Rite-Aid, and Bristol - Meyers Squibb.

Uh huh.

> Trust? I think your being a little naive here.

But the whole reason Enron collapsed was because they lost the
trust, justly or unjustly, of their customers.

> Corporate America is wrought with fraud/corruption and they
> operate behind a facade of righteousness.

Sounds like projection to me.

> Ultimately, All
> that matters is the bottom line and the stockholders/stock prices.

A corporation is supposed to guide itself by the bottom line,
and work to protect the owners (stockholders) values, most of
whom are your kids grandparents. If they don't, they can now
go to jail (Sarbannes-oXley.)

And the best companies, such as Wal-Mart and Southwest
Airlines, put their employees first, not their customers.

> >"Stop and think of this idea of armies of faceless gnomes falsely
> >clicking ads and even filling out conversion forms!"
>
> Spam bots do this thousands, maybe millions of time a day.

And you think Google can't tell a spam bot from a person? "boy
that guy is visiting a lot if sites and clicking a lot of ads!
He must have drunk a case of Mountain Dew today."

> They fill out and submit all kinds of forms automatically. I
> am a web developer as well and I know for a fact that this is
> possible and happening today.

Sure it is possible, but is it widespread and undetectable?

> We see it everyday and try to circumvent it. However, the
> spammers/hackers always seem to find a work around because
> there is money in it.

If you really think that click bots are eating your AdWords
dollars, you should be communicating this to Google. As I said
above, I can't see how there is any money in it. Human
clicking is pretty much out. Automated clicking is pretty
detectable.

> Furthermore, there is an army of zombie machines out there
> (with unique IP addresses) that are controlled by
> hackers/spammers/ to use for whatever purpose they please.

Uh huh.

> Security vendors say it takes as little as six to 15 seconds
> for a software-driven attack to find and infect an
> unprotected PC connected to the Internet. These are automated
> tools that scan IP address blocks.
> They are relentless, never get tired, and work 24/7

Actually the biggest performance sucker I have seen on my PC
is Skype, which decides to make anyone with a fixed IP its
secret relay. Clever dudes.
 
> We have visited with potential clients that sit there an tell
> us that they click on their competitors ads several times a
> day on a daily
> basis.

> The aforementioned customer

I do hope you mean potential customer, not customer

> (mid-sized company, 100
> + people)
> was clicking on a competitors ad which cost them over 50.00
> per click.
> That adds up to some serious money over time.
> There's all kinds of motivation for fraud.

I doubt they remember to keep it up, I doubt there are many
companies that irrational, I doubt it adds up to a significant
amount of click fraud for Google, and I know Google could trap
for that behavior pretty easily.

And a company that spends $50 a click on an AdWords buy, can
afford $50 clicks. The size of the click doesn't much matter,
it's the percentage of the budget that matters. If their
competitors are the only ones clicking their ads, they have
bigger problems than click fraud.

> Keith Hickman
> Director, Marketing & Web Development
> Advanced Web Site Publishing

To restate my thesis, I don't think click fraud is a
significant percentage of Google's AdSense clicks, and I
haven't heard a rational, technologically feasible,
undetectable, economically sustainable case for large amounts
of click fraud against Google. I don't know about the other
PPC engines since I have no contact with them.

Brad Jensen
www.n2information.com








Received on Fri Aug 18 2006 - 09:52:15 CDT