Re: ONLINE-ADS>> Lycos new Ad Network with Softbank

Dana Blankenhorn (dana.blankenhorn_at_worldnet.att.net)
Mon, 31 Mar 1997 10:24:21 -0500

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This is for Mr. Fix, who's concerned that Softbank may monopolize
the trade show-magazine-Web industries.

First, don't worry. You've left, you're smart, they can't get you.
The Internet has such low barriers-to-entry that no one can dominate
it the way Softbank's trying to.

Second, take a look at their financials. (They're publicly-traded
in Japan.) This is a balloon waiting to pop, IMHO. They overpay for
everything -- look at the $1.5 billion they paid for board-banger
Kingston Technologies last year.

Ask yourself, seriously -- where are the profits? The magazines
aren't doing much better under Softbank. Are the trade shows? The
Net-stuff's got to be a drag on results. Kingston's not going to
bring big numbers to the bottom-line.

What you've got is an outfit that's leveraging assets to the hilt.
Very vulnerable to a downturn. Haven't seen any big buys from
Tokyo lately -- that should be a clue as to the future.

The companies in the group which do turn a profit will survive
whatever happens to the parent. They'll be sold in pieces, over time.
The people at all these companies are fine. I count many as friends.
They'll be rough times ahead, but nothing fatal -- unless their
unit is turning in losses.

The above is just my opinion, but it's an opinion fortified by nearly
20 years' of business reporting experience, 15 of them covering
technology.

Dana Blankenhorn
A Clue...to Internet Commerce
http://www.tbass.com/clue or http://www.ppn.org/clue

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