NONE: Re: ONLINE-ADS>> Marketing in the year 2010?
Re: ONLINE-ADS>> Marketing in the year 2010?
Mark J. Welch, Esq. (markwelch_at_ca-probate.com)
Wed, 19 Nov 1997 18:20:49 -0800
I almost chimed in after the first message, but after
Jim Lynch's comments I just have to respond. (If you
read nothing else of my message, read the last
paragraph.)
When my local supermarket chain (Lucky) came out
with its "Rewards Card," offering extra discounts and
automatic application of coupon prices for users of the
card, I was suspicious and uncomfortable at the idea
of being "profiled." Initially, I simply refused to get the
card and I refused to buy items that were marked as
offering a discount if I used a Rewards card. But the
store is too convenient and the prices too attractive,
so eventually I decided to get a Rewards Card.
I even took the extra step of signing up for two
different cards, one using false personal information
(fake name, address, etc.). But I don't remember
which is which (one is in my wallet, the other in my
dashboard in case I forget the other one).
My experience thus far is that Lucky does an
absolutely awful job of profiling and tracking me: I
still only get coupons generated based on today's
purchases, not last week's or last month's. I assume
that the profiling data is being used: for example, to
decide to co-locate products that are bought
together, or to measure the effect of pricing
changes on buying patterns by specific consumers.
My local store just built a whole new department to
sell "fresh-prepared" meals, which is probably a
decision they based on pattern information they
got from their data collection (including the Rewards
cards).
As Jim Lynch alludes (but doesn't expressly state),
I would be somewhat nervous buying condoms at
Lucky and using my Rewards card. There's just
some information I don't want stored in databases
(indeed, I might worry that someone might draw
inferences from the volume -- high or low -- of
my condom purchases, or that someone might
make assumptions based on the simultaneous
purchase of condoms and some other product[s].)
But let's take this to the year 2010, and let's assume
that my local cable TV company develops the ability
to target ad delivery by household (or perhaps by
individual viewer) based on the profile information.
I suspect that the real application will be twofold:
first, targetting ads to individual viewers (so that
grandpa sees advertisements for Depends and
Geritol and the new "Matlock" movie, while parents
see ads for mini-vans and oatmeal and "NYPD
Blue", and kids see ads for breakfast cereal,
toys, and child-oriented programming).
Second, the same advertiser can deliver different
ads or messages to different viewers (for some
viewers, stress that Tylenol is safe and effective,
for others stress that Tylenol is recommended
by doctors, and for others, stress that Tylenol is
cheaper than Advil). (Imagine the election-year
ads: the candidate can tailor ad deliveries based
on the actual preferences of the voter, highlighting
areas of agreement, effectively raising issues
that are of concern or doubt, and downplaying or
ignoring topics in which the voter disagrees with
the candidate's position.)
Put those together: the advertiser might deliver
a very different message based on the MIX of
people in the household. (For example, election
campaigns might assume that a household with
one democrat and one republican is "moderate"
while a household with two democrats or
republicans is less moderate. Or ads for condoms
might be sent only to households with no children.)
Another option: if we KNOW which commercials were
displayed while a particular family had the TV on, we
can more effectively use "sequenced" ads, in which
several ads convey a story or message. (The Burma-
Shave strategy.) The ads could even "follow" the
viewer who changes channels!This is certainly an element
that many internet banner advertisers could more
effectively use today.
The problem, of course, is the immense amount of data
that would need to be managed and used, and the huge
distributed network of nodes involved. That's a lot of
infrastructure, both hardware and software. I doubt
that these possibilities will be possible by 2010, but
they might be possible in 2020.
Oh, another idea: advertisers might well pool together
and actually pay to deliver free or highly discounted
equipment (big screen TVs, stereo sound, and of
course intelligent program delivery systems) to
consumers who fall into desirable demographic
groups, by the year 2010. (On a more practical
scale, a clever ISP could probably subsidize and
give away free internet accounts by targetting the
most desirable consumers and selling their demo-
graphic data to allow targetted ad delivery, while
charging higher rates or refusing business from
users with less desirable demographics.)
Imagine: you go to the grocery store to buy Huggies,
and out pops a coupon to buy a 52-inch "Intelligent
Cable-Ready" TV from Circuit City for $100 -- and
when you use the coupon, the store embeds your
purchase (the TV's memory circuits) with the initial
data that you are a household with young children,
ideal for accepting advertising images for many
years! Big Brother is watching, indeed.
-- Mark J. Welch, Esq. (510) 462-8483 http://www.ca-probate.com/
-- Note: area code will change in April 1998 to (925)
-- Web Site Banner Ads and Web Counters: http://www.markwelch.com/
-- Small Office / Home Office Consumer: http://www.sohoconsumer.com/
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