NONE: Re: ONLINE-ADS>> Article: Offline Advertising in an Online
Re: ONLINE-ADS>> Article: Offline Advertising in an Online
TLee_at_webcmo.com
Thu, 17 Sep 1998 17:47:22 -0500 (CDT)
Eldon Sarte wrote:
>However, there's one piece of information that I don't see,
>a very important one, one that I surprisingly usually don't
>see mentioned in threads on this topic: What are these
>people selling, promoting, publishing?
>
>How one promotes a site, and what techniques are effective
>or ineffective, will really depend on what one is selling,
>promoting, or publishing doesn't it?
Eldon, to answer your questions, we need to understand the
strengths and limitations of statistics.
As I said in the previous post, we had a discussion thread
about offline promotion effect in this list and people had
different opinions and experiences about offline promotional
effects. Which opinion or experience is correct? A
statistical analysis gives the best answer: more people
thought offline promotion is effective in generating both
sales and traffics and comparing to most other promotional
methods, people thought offline is more effective. So if you
use offline promotion, you EXPECT it is more effective than
most of the other promotional methods. This is the power of
statistics.
However you won't expect every offline promotion is more
effective than a banner advertising. The real effect of
offline promotion really depends on what you promote and how
to promote. Many factors (millions of factors) influence the
effect of an offline promotion. A statistical model is
unable to catch up all these factors. This is the limitation
of statistics.
Does this mean that a statistical analysis is useless?
Certainly not! A statistical analysis almost always provides
the BEST knowledge about a subject with the same limited
information.
Assume that you want to know how effective an offline
promotion is to sell books online. You collect one sample
about such promotion (selling books), is it sufficient for
you to make any conclusion? NO! You need to collect more
cases about such promotion. More cases mean that you are
able to use statistic analysis to make a conclusion. However
then a question will destroy all your efforts: selling what
books?
Image people only sell five different merchandises online
and they have only three different creative designs of a
banner, we are able to use a statistical model to predict
the effectiveness of promoting any merchandise by using any
creative banner design. However because we have more than a
million products and services online and unlimited creative
banner designs, plus unlimited other factors influencing a
promotion effect, we have to simplify this complicated world
and use the basic model to catch up the effectiveness of
different promotional methods.
In an uncertain world, expectation is the best knowledge
about the future.
Hope this answer your questions.
Cheers!
Tim Lee
Director of Research
http://www.WebCMO.com
A site dedicated to web marketing research.
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