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I usually don't trust any online prediction because so far
none of online predictions tells me how they make such
predictions. Based on my limited statistic knowledge, I know
such forecasting is VERY UNRELIABLE. BTW, have any of you
seen any numbers or words about the reliability of such
forecasting by any online forecasters? (Please read "Let's
forecast!" at http://www.webcmo.com/forum/fortop4.htm)
But I do believe that "online ads are down".
About 10 month ago, in WebCMO's "Online Promotion Strategy
Study", we found that online banner advertising is not the
most effective promotional method and most web marketers
complained about the high cost of banner advertising. Here
is what we conclude in that study:
"While online advertising community is still focusing on the
measurement of banner advertising, it seems that the future
of online banner advertising depends on its effect (click
through rate) instead of how to calculate the price. As the
online banner AD satisfaction analysis shows, price is not a
key driver for online banner advertising satisfaction. The
dynamics of the web promotion market is not only about
segment targeting but also about segment competing."
(http://www.webcmo.com/report/opss1/report1.htm)
"Online banner promotion market shall continue to grow.
However, as we stated in our first report, the dynamics of
the web business promotion market is not only about segment
targeting but also about segment competing. If the online
advertising community is unable to increase the
effectiveness of online banners, online banner advertising
market will become the smaller part of the ever growing
bigger pie." (http://www.webcmo.com/report/opss1/banner.htm)
Regards,
Tim Lee
Editor -- Journal of Web Marketing Research
http://www.WebCMO.com
Innovations in web marketing research & strategy
Participate in "Email Marketing Strategy" survey to receive your FREE report
http://www.webcmo.com/mis/survey.htm
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Received on Fri Apr 30 1999 - 11:49:48 CDT
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